Scarcity.  Nothing determines whether you have a good fantasy draft more than scarcity.  What do I mean by that?  Let me explain.  Football is a constantly evolving game.  Offensive and defensive strategies are under routine and systematic scrutiny from coaches, players, analysts and fans, and as a result are forced to improve or be left behind.  Because of this fact, the roles of certain positions become more or less valued every season.  Especially for fantasy.  Twenty years ago it was run first league.  Where a halfback may touch the ball 30 times a game, every game.  For fantasy, running backs ruled the league.  Whoever had the greatest stable of starting tailbacks won.

Now it's a pass first league.  Especially at the top.  Where teams like the Packers, Patriots, Colts (with Peyton Manning) and the Saints, can easily score 4 or 5 touchdowns a game and not have a single rushing touchdown.  And this particular trend is one I don't see slowing.  Due to the changes in the rules in the past few years, it has become clear that the league office wants the NFL to be a pass first, offensively driven game.  The shear volume of pass interference calls this season should be clear evidence of that.  

So what should this lead you to do with your fantasy team.  DRAFT THE GOOD RUNNING BACK TALENT FIRST.  Wait on your quarterback.  Wait on those wide receivers.  There are now only a handful of teams that even try to effectively run the football.  Even less that consider it the running game the backbone of their team's offensive strategy.  They are scarce and thus valuable and if you an early draft pick, you should be looking to get one of the rare, every down backs still in existence.

But wait you say.  You just said it was a pass first league.  Shouldn't I get a quarterback or wide receiver first if that's the case?  No.  And the reason is simple.  There is so much talent at those positions now.  In terms of fantasy value the difference between Drew Brees (a long time fantasy power house) and Cam Newton or Andy Dalton (untested rookies with a short off season) is minimal with the exception of the rare game.  And wide receivers tend to be feast or famine nowadays.  Guys like Brady and Brees will finish games with 7 or sometimes 8 different receivers having caught a pass.  How are you possibly supposed to have known to draft an undrafted free agent from Bumsville Iowa College as first round talent?

Also because of the trend of teams to target tight ends in the red zone at the moment, the wide receiver slots are even becoming more of a gamble.

Quick conclusion.  While right now the trend is a pass happy, throw it to everybody, run when only necessary league, the game changes and it's up to you to determine where the scarcity lies so that you can thrive while everyone else is left picking up the scraps.

In my opinion the single funnest event during the fantasy football season is always the draft.  This is the case for two very good reasons.  First, the draft is usually accompanied by a party.  Second, this is the day that the team that I have been planning for months, finally comes together.  And while the draft certainly doesn't always end with my dream fantasy team filling my roster slots, it's almost always an enjoyable experience. 

When it comes to your first fantasy draft here are a few things to keep in mind.

1.  Have fun.  It's a party.
2.  Talk trash.  A lot of it.  Even if you don't know anything about that player that your brother or sister just drafted, make sure you make them believe that it was the dumbest thing they've ever done.
3.  Bring your money.  Be prepared to pay the entry fee for your league on draft day.  Nothing annoys league commissioners more than having to track people down during the season.
4.  Get the cell phone number and email address of every person in your league.  Whether you know personally each and every member of your league or not, these people are now your best friends and mortal enemies, and at some point in the season alliances are going to need to be made and broken.  By that I mean, trades are important.  There will come a time when you're in need of a position player that someone else has, so make it easier on yourself and get their number now.
5.  Have your cheat sheets handy.  We'll get more into what cheat sheets are and how best to make use of them in a later post.  Just don't forget to take them to the draft, because like your homework in high school, it doesn't help your grade if you did it, but then forgot to bring it to class.
6.  Make sure you host it at a place with a reliable internet connection.  Most of you will be doing your draft online, even if everyone gets together to do it.  It sucks to be in the middle of draft, just to lose your connection.  Once that happens, you'll be placed on auto draft and that means the computer will pick for you and that's just not any fun.
7.  Leave your team fan affiliations at the door.  I've mentioned this before and I stand by it.  If you want to win at fantasy, you need to separate your love of a team from your need for points.  That means even if you're a ravenous Indy fan like myself, you still need to swallow your Colt pride and draft Tom Brady in the 4th round if he's still there.
8.  Leave your friendships at the door.  Or as I put it, "Friendship dies at the door.  This is draft day."  That means even if you know your wife really, really wants a player, but you have the chance to snag him one slot before she does, and he's the best player on the board.  Do it.  (Ignore this advice completely if you value your marriage.)
9.  Bring food.  This is more a rule that I throw in, because I consume a lot of it and it would be rude to go to a party and not bring anything.
10.  Don't fret if you don't get the team you want.  It's almost impossible to end the draft with the exact team you'd hoped for, but don't worry in the end it'll all work itself out.  If you stay flexible and get the best talent you can, odds are you'll be fine during the season.

Well that's it.  Upcoming posts will deal with the different types of drafts that you'll experience and strategies to tackle them.  Until then, good luck on your match ups and as always if you have any questions, comments or ideas, feel free to contact me.