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Fear the Paper Tiger

It seems every year I suffer the indignity of falling victim to the Paper Tiger.  What's the Paper Tiger?  You know, that team in your league that looks like it should suck, does suck regularly, but manages to win each and every week because they just happen to be playing against a team whose quarterback goes down, or who's defense gives up 60, or who's running back decides right before the game to change his profession and move to Mexico City to become a street performer.  You know whose team I'm talking about.  Whatever their team name, their your fantasy football league's Paper Tiger.  Scary record, relatively harmless fantasy team.

I wish that I could give you some purely analytical approach to taming this beast, chopping its head off and mounting it on your wall, but I can't.  Fantasy Football, while it is a game of numbers, is at its core a game of luck, and some people simply have more of it than others (particularly me).  But hey, that's what it makes it so fun.  Like the saying goes, "Any given Sunday."  Any weekend yours could be the team that wins.  Overcomes a typically superior opponent, leaving you laughing all the way to the bank.  I find I need to remind myself of that a few times during the season, especially when a team of mine goes on losing streak that I just can't seem to comprehend.  

So if you find yourself in a losing battle with the Paper Tiger this week, stay strong.  They can't win forever.  And if they do, well then there's someone you probably want to avoid at the poker tables as well, because that is one lucky son of a gun.

And yes this was inspired by my team's unfortunate loss this weekend.

 

The Golden Rule Of Fantasy Drafting

Scarcity.  Nothing determines whether you have a good fantasy draft more than scarcity.  What do I mean by that?  Let me explain.  Football is a constantly evolving game.  Offensive and defensive strategies are under routine and systematic scrutiny from coaches, players, analysts and fans, and as a result are forced to improve or be left behind.  Because of this fact, the roles of certain positions become more or less valued every season.  Especially for fantasy.  Twenty years ago it was run first league.  Where a halfback may touch the ball 30 times a game, every game.  For fantasy, running backs ruled the league.  Whoever had the greatest stable of starting tailbacks won.

Now it's a pass first league.  Especially at the top.  Where teams like the Packers, Patriots, Colts (with Peyton Manning) and the Saints, can easily score 4 or 5 touchdowns a game and not have a single rushing touchdown.  And this particular trend is one I don't see slowing.  Due to the changes in the rules in the past few years, it has become clear that the league office wants the NFL to be a pass first, offensively driven game.  The shear volume of pass interference calls this season should be clear evidence of that.  

So what should this lead you to do with your fantasy team.  DRAFT THE GOOD RUNNING BACK TALENT FIRST.  Wait on your quarterback.  Wait on those wide receivers.  There are now only a handful of teams that even try to effectively run the football.  Even less that consider it the running game the backbone of their team's offensive strategy.  They are scarce and thus valuable and if you an early draft pick, you should be looking to get one of the rare, every down backs still in existence.

But wait you say.  You just said it was a pass first league.  Shouldn't I get a quarterback or wide receiver first if that's the case?  No.  And the reason is simple.  There is so much talent at those positions now.  In terms of fantasy value the difference between Drew Brees (a long time fantasy power house) and Cam Newton or Andy Dalton (untested rookies with a short off season) is minimal with the exception of the rare game.  And wide receivers tend to be feast or famine nowadays.  Guys like Brady and Brees will finish games with 7 or sometimes 8 different receivers having caught a pass.  How are you possibly supposed to have known to draft an undrafted free agent from Bumsville Iowa College as first round talent?

Also because of the trend of teams to target tight ends in the red zone at the moment, the wide receiver slots are even becoming more of a gamble.

Quick conclusion.  While right now the trend is a pass happy, throw it to everybody, run when only necessary league, the game changes and it's up to you to determine where the scarcity lies so that you can thrive while everyone else is left picking up the scraps.

Why Being Late to the Party is Bad

For the majority of posts on this blog, I'm trying to avoid topics that are purely seasonal or related to a specific player.  I'm doing this in the hope that the information you will find here will be useful to you regardless of the NFL season that is being played.  However, here I'm going to make an exception to the rule and discuss a specific player and his situation.  Hopefully, though, the premise of it will continue to be useful for years to come.

This week Carson Palmer became an Oakland Raider after the injury to Jason Campbell.  Carson Palmer had been "retired" for all intensive purposes, but I still see alot of people picking him up for their fantasy teams in hopes of hitting it big on a long shot.  I think they're wasting thier money.

Oakland is a run first team.  A philosophy that is made easier by the fact that at this point in time their running back is leading the league.  Darren McFadden is looking good.  Real good.  And behind an offensive line that went through some changes in the off season.  Which makes it even more impressive.

So what does that mean for Carson Palmer?  It means that Oakland is probably glad they have him, but at least for the next few weeks they aren't going to ask him to anything more than hand the ball off and smile at press conferences.  He is the longest of long shots for fantasy points and in my opinioned shouldn't be touched with a ten foot pole.  Remember the last time Bret Favre tried to come back from retirement?  Remember how well that went?

The Duds For Stud Trade Offer

This post is inspired by a trade offer I received yesterday.  A trade offer of the kind that I have received so many times during my years of fantasy football, and a trade offer that I sure will be similar to one that you will receive in the future.

The basic premise of the Duds For Stud trade offer is simple.  A member of your league offers you two or possibly three of his bench players for one of your regular starters.  Wow you say.  What a deal.  With one trade I can strengthen my bench to the point that I can finally get rid of (insert name of current bum player here).  Sounds like a winner.

Wrong.  Let's look at this another way.  If you owned say a brand new, BMW or Mercedes Benz and I offered you two used Chevy Cobalts for it, would you accept?  No.  And the reason is simple.  You can only drive only car at a time, and if you're only driving one, you want that one to be a BMW.  Who doesn't.  The same rule applies for fantasy football.  It doesn't do you any good, to ever strengthen your bench at the expense of your starters.  Your bench players can't win you a head-to-head matchup.  Only your starters can do that.

This may sound self explanatory, and it is.  But you would be amazed how tempting an offer of this kind can be.  Especially so, when one of those two players you've been offered is a member of the all-hype rookie class, or the ex-great ready for a comeback, or something along those lines.  But be strong and your fantasy football team will be better for it in the future. 

Fantasy Football Draft Systems

The Snake Draft

Have you heard your friend boasting that he has the first pick in his fantasy draft, or complaining that he's be forced to pick last?  Ever wondered what that meant?  Well based upon those statement it's safe to say that your friend's league uses the Snake Draft system.

In fantasy football there are basically only two drafting systems.  The Snake Draft and the Auction Draft.  By default, many of the online fantasy sites use the Snake Draft, so that is the one we're going to start with.

The premise is simple.  Just like the NFL Draft, each team in your league is assigned a specific slot to pick from.  Generally speaking in fantasy these slots are assigned randomly.  Unlike the NFL Draft, however, the Snake Draft then reverses the order after each round.  For example, if you are in a 10 team league and have been lucky enough to have the first pick, you're first two picks will be numbers 1 and 20.  Not 1 and 11.  Doing this helps create parity amongst the teams. 

It also presents interesting strategic options for people who pick "on the turn".  To pick, "on the turn" means that you are either the team with the first of last pick in the first round, because as the rounds rotate order, you will have the opportunity to pick back-to-back.  Many, many winning fantasy teams are built from the last drafting position because of this advantage.  So if you hear your friend complaining about being forced to draft last, you might want suggest to that person that they start reading this blog.

The Auction Draft

The Auction Draft functions exactly like the name implies.  Essentially each team in the league is given an equal dollar amount to bid on players.  The beauty of this system, is that unlike the Snake Draft, in an Auction Draft each and every team has an equal opportunity to get every player.  So there is no drafting first or last.  If you want to bid on every player you can.

The rub here of course is that once your out of money the rest of your team will be filled with scrubs.  So strategically you're trying to get the most out of your money with every purchase.  In addition of course, you're trying to drive up the price of players that your competition wants.  Thus limiting how many top notch players they can buy.

In future posts I will covering a whole host of strategies and thoughts on these two systems and how to make sure you end up with a quality team regardless of the system your league uses.  The key with both, however, is practice.  During the offseason take the time to develop your strategies and contingency plans by using mock drafts provided by your league's hosting service.  In the end, that's about the only way to ensure that you come out on top when your league conducts it's draft for real.

How To Have A Good Fantasy Draft

In my opinion the single funnest event during the fantasy football season is always the draft.  This is the case for two very good reasons.  First, the draft is usually accompanied by a party.  Second, this is the day that the team that I have been planning for months, finally comes together.  And while the draft certainly doesn't always end with my dream fantasy team filling my roster slots, it's almost always an enjoyable experience. 

When it comes to your first fantasy draft here are a few things to keep in mind.

1.  Have fun.  It's a party.
2.  Talk trash.  A lot of it.  Even if you don't know anything about that player that your brother or sister just drafted, make sure you make them believe that it was the dumbest thing they've ever done.
3.  Bring your money.  Be prepared to pay the entry fee for your league on draft day.  Nothing annoys league commissioners more than having to track people down during the season.
4.  Get the cell phone number and email address of every person in your league.  Whether you know personally each and every member of your league or not, these people are now your best friends and mortal enemies, and at some point in the season alliances are going to need to be made and broken.  By that I mean, trades are important.  There will come a time when you're in need of a position player that someone else has, so make it easier on yourself and get their number now.
5.  Have your cheat sheets handy.  We'll get more into what cheat sheets are and how best to make use of them in a later post.  Just don't forget to take them to the draft, because like your homework in high school, it doesn't help your grade if you did it, but then forgot to bring it to class.
6.  Make sure you host it at a place with a reliable internet connection.  Most of you will be doing your draft online, even if everyone gets together to do it.  It sucks to be in the middle of draft, just to lose your connection.  Once that happens, you'll be placed on auto draft and that means the computer will pick for you and that's just not any fun.
7.  Leave your team fan affiliations at the door.  I've mentioned this before and I stand by it.  If you want to win at fantasy, you need to separate your love of a team from your need for points.  That means even if you're a ravenous Indy fan like myself, you still need to swallow your Colt pride and draft Tom Brady in the 4th round if he's still there.
8.  Leave your friendships at the door.  Or as I put it, "Friendship dies at the door.  This is draft day."  That means even if you know your wife really, really wants a player, but you have the chance to snag him one slot before she does, and he's the best player on the board.  Do it.  (Ignore this advice completely if you value your marriage.)
9.  Bring food.  This is more a rule that I throw in, because I consume a lot of it and it would be rude to go to a party and not bring anything.
10.  Don't fret if you don't get the team you want.  It's almost impossible to end the draft with the exact team you'd hoped for, but don't worry in the end it'll all work itself out.  If you stay flexible and get the best talent you can, odds are you'll be fine during the season.

Well that's it.  Upcoming posts will deal with the different types of drafts that you'll experience and strategies to tackle them.  Until then, good luck on your match ups and as always if you have any questions, comments or ideas, feel free to contact me.

Resources and Research

Now comes the fun part.  You're in a league (If you're not start here).  You understand the rules and the scoring (If you don't start here).  You understand what type of players (not who, but what type) you will need to put together a winning team.  It's time to start the research.

For me this usually begins in say early June, but I'm a junky like that.  For you, this will probably start at most a month before the season, or at minimum two hours before your draft is set to begin.  So what follows is going to be a wide array of resources that will help you through the Herculian (it only feels that way) task of putting together a winning fantasy football team.

Resources

Gone are the days that magazines provided us diehards with the fantasy insider information that we craved.  Now thanks to the internet we have a plethora of "fantasy experts" just waiting for our fingers to type their website url into our address bar.  Here are a few of the best ones.

ESPN Fantasy Football Homepage - ESPN provides a number of fantasy services such as cheatsheets, draft kits and continual scouting reports.  In my opinion it's the best place for up to the minute news about players.  Particular experts that you may want to pay special attention to are Mathew Berry and Christopher Harris.  Those guys dish out the good advice often and in large quantities.  Also the ESPN Fantasy Focus Football Podcast is a must listen during the season.

FootballGuys.com - This particular website has a lot of subscriber only content.  But don't worry that's not the reason you go to it.  No reason to waste a bunch of money if you're only a beginner anway.  What you want to do here is sign up for their daily email newsletter, which will provide you with daily injury updates, scouting reports and coach's statements that you may have missed out on.   Also like ESPN, their podcast is usually very good.

Ray Flowers - This link isn't so much about the website, as the man in the profile Ray Flowers.  He writes for a number of different sites during the season as well as hosting The Fantasy Drive on XM Radio.  Find and follower this man.  He apparently has no life other than memorizing sports statistics and on any given day may point you to the sleeper pick that wins you your league.

This list could go on and on.  The amount of websites dedicated to fantasy football at this point is overwhelming.  Yes I understand the irony of that statement.  

These are simply the sites I trust to help me prepare for my drafts, determine if my trades opportunites are benificial and alert me to who I should pick up on waivers.

I hope you find them as helpful as I do.

Fantasy Football Scoring Systems

The easiest way to ensure that you have almost no shot of winning your fantasy football league is to go into the season not understanding the scoring system that your league has chosen to employ. This is especially true for beginners, particularly beginners who have been invited into long established leagues. If you're joining a league that has been around for years you're probably not going to have any say in the scoring system, and should never assume that they use any of the "normal" systems described below. So do your homework, or find yourself left behind.

Standard Scoring

If you're reading this because you took the advice I gave in the post, Where To Play Fantasy Football, and found some friends to start a league with, I'm going to recommend that you use the Standard Scoring System. I doing this for a few reasons.

1. When you create a new league on any the sites that I mentioned, the scoring system already configured in their system is the Standard Scoring System. No need for you to do anything to set it up.

2. Before and during the season, you will be scouring hundreds of websites, popcasts and magazines trying to find the list of players that you'd like to draft, trade for, or pick up on waivers and most of these sources are going to rank players according to how they would perform in a Standard Scoring System.

3. It is easy to understand and well documented. This system is used by the vast majority of people who play fantasy and therefore is likely to be familiar to those in your league who have played before. And because it is so well documented, there should be no confusion amongst the members of your league.

Here is a link to the ESPN page that describes the scoring numbers associates with this system. http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=fflrulesstandardsco...

Point Per Reception (PPR)

Point Per Reception leagues have grown extremely popular over the past few years. The premise is simple; In addition to rewarding points based upon the yardage a player accumulates, players are also awarded a point (or half point) for each time they catch the ball. Doing this can help level the playing field between the points scored by running backs (who touch the ball many more times during a game than wide receivers) and wide receivers and tight ends.

Playing in this type of league can be a lot of fun, but be warned it vastly changes the fantasy value of players, and can require a deeper knowledge of various teams' depth charts. That being said, it is the scoring system I greatly prefer due to the parity it can great.

Touchdown Only

This one is pretty self explanatory. Points are only awarded to players who throw, run, or catch a touchdown.  These leagues are rare and in my opinion force their participants to rely to much on luck.  And if you're playing for money, who wants to involve luck?

Well that's it for now. Hopefully by this point you're considering making the plunge into the entertaining world of fantasy football. If so, keep checking back as I have lots of advice to help you get to the top of your league.

 

Where to Play Fantasy Football

So you're thinking about playing, now the question is where do I start. The answer: a league. Fantasy football can't be played alone and wouldn't be any fun if it could. After all, most of the fun comes from talking trash to your current opponent and gloating over your previous one (Assuming you won). So gather up some friends and family, co-workers and neighbors and head to one of the following websites, where setting up a league is as easy clicking a mouse and as free as the air you breath.

ESPN.com
NFL.com
YahooSports.com
FleaFlicker.com

While I could break down each of these services individually, I think it would be simpler and more helpful for you if I simply say use whichever one seems the most intuitive to you and your friends. Don't be afraid to create some test leagues on each of the sites, you can always delete the ones you don't use. The important thing here is that the members of your league all feel competent enough with the service, that when week 6 comes around no one I complaining about not knowing how to propose a trade or pick up a player off the waiver wire (We'll get to some of those terms later).

In the next post we'll discuss the various scoring systems that can be used for your league and the implications of each of them, but for now just go find those friends. The pleasure of surfing on their tears can't start until you're all signed up to play.